Just a quick recap of Dec LMP status incase I didn’t mention it on 11/30.
The 5 IVY portfolio components are
- SP 500 (Risk ON)
- MSCI EAFE (The Most Famous International Index) (Risk OFF)
- U.S. 10-Year Government Bonds (Risk ON)
- NAREIT (U.S. Real Estate Index) (Risk OFF)
- SP GSCI (Goldman Sachs Commodity Index) (Risk ON)
My current hold includes:
20% US equity (SPY), 40% mid-term bond (LTPZ), 20% gold (GLD), 20% money market (UUP)
20% US equity (SPY), 40% mid-term bond (LTPZ), 20% gold (GLD), 20% money market (UUP)
My current approach uses only ETFs. I will think of Mutual Funds once things getting cool down. In my practice, I went long on Gold via the gold ETF GLD to replace the Commodity component for now.
In current month's reading of the 6 components (5 original plus Gold), Bond and Gold are green, and the other 4 are red. In my last post, I summarized why I take Equity position despite the Moving Average signal is still negative. If you still remember, last month REIT actually turned green, but I overrode the signal, as disclosed here. This month it turned back to red. I didn't say too much about why, but I did spend some time on the topic. I may think of some specialized Real Estate investments, but not general term in the next couple months.
In current month's reading of the 6 components (5 original plus Gold), Bond and Gold are green, and the other 4 are red. In my last post, I summarized why I take Equity position despite the Moving Average signal is still negative. If you still remember, last month REIT actually turned green, but I overrode the signal, as disclosed here. This month it turned back to red. I didn't say too much about why, but I did spend some time on the topic. I may think of some specialized Real Estate investments, but not general term in the next couple months.
It is hard to tell what's going on next. The Elliott Wave guys online are all turned bearish. Here are examples:
Early episode:
Low Maintenance Portfolio - Nov 2011
let me hide this here.
ReplyDeletehttp://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424052748703438504577042394189481000.html?mod=BOL_hpp_mag#articleTabs_panel_article%3D1
DeMark Sees S&P 500 at 1,330 by Christmas Before Gain Fades
ReplyDeletehttp://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/g/a/2011/12/05/bloomberg_articlesLVR3HR6S972K.DTL