Wednesday, December 14, 2011

Where is Santa

The Fed didn't do anything. Following my plan, I stopped out on Tuesday. Not sure if it is right or wrong, but as I conservative investor, I think I should stand on the side or a moment.
I am using $VIX the volatility index as one of my major indicator. Usually it is inversely correlated with SPX, the broad market index. In my late November plan, I was trying to harvest VIX dry out. Unfortunately, in recent movement, both VIX and SPX were going lower together. Below is a chart posted by Cobra summarizing the recent occurrences of this situation. According to Cobra, the situation VIX down 0.8% while SPX also down happened 17 times in the past 2000 trading days (roughly 10 years).

http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/wp-content/uploads/1213_109B2/VIXDownOnSPXBigRed.png

I guess I am not very lucky on this one. At this moment I really really miss Santa.

What I did wrong is Gold. I should stop out earlier. I started to think of it couple weeks ago, but I didn't take action. Gartman is right. Gold very likely will under-perform equity for the next couple months. The reason could be the fall of EU and Euro will send US Dollar higher, while Gold as an alternative currency is priced in USD and will get a direct hit. US Equity is priced in USD too but the impact will not be that significant, since US economy will "stand-out" anyway on the fall of EU.
I see the slow down of selling activities in the market. I will find an exit.

No comments:

Post a Comment