Thursday, November 8, 2012

(nothing) lots to say - updated

As I said the street favors Romney. They didn't get their candy this time. As usual they put on the drama now. Somebody is calling bottom. I am conservative this time. I think the battle around neckline SPX 1400 is far from over. Volatility is heading up. I expect it to go even higher.

(1 of my readers don't trade equity. I guess he can handle Bond well. :D Me nice enough to translate my expectation into plain English:
This means I guess index won't move too much, but will be very volatile like yesterday. Intra-day range will be bigger.)

It's the best time for trading. If you don't like trade, then think about reduce your exposure and just wait on the side.

(to add charts)

This is not a typical flag, as the correction took too long and too flat. However, it is a rectangle correction. The next movement is always powerful. If I have to guess the points, I am targeting ES 1365-1370 area, which is 1370ish SPX.


I discussed weekly RSI with a friend HD. I believe it is not oversold yet. We still have room to go down.


Pattern-wise, this is the 3 push pattern I am expecting. I think there will be 3 pushes to the down side, but it does not mean it could be only 3. Anyway my bias is to the down side.

Add: 
My friend CR sent me this link. It is on the Hindenburg Omen I discussed a while ago. Th author says Hindenburg Omen is about to issue the first signal. What to expect?

Here's how it works:

1. Once an initial signal has been issued, a second signal (the 'confirming signal') must be attained within 36 days [Dr. Robert McHugh].  That confirming signal could happen the next day or the next week.

2. When the "confirmed HO signal" has been issued it is valid for 30 trading days [Jim Meikka, creator of the HO].

3. Once an official HO signal has been issued in accordance with the two rules above, the odds of various corrections occurring are as follows, according to the records of Dr. Robert McHugh. These are not predictions nor speculative guesswork. They are a cast in stone record of what has happened in the past.


here's how it breaks down based on past performance:

Major Crash - 27% probability
Selling panic of at least 10-15% - 39% probability
Sharp decline of at least 8-10% - 54% probability
Meaningful decline of at least 5-8% - 77% probability
Mild decline of at least 2-5% - 92% probability
The HO signal is an outright miss - 7.7% probability (one out of 13 times)


Here comes Ron Walker and his famous BPI



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