For the new month, I have everything on buy side.
The 5 IVY portfolio components are
- SP 500 (Risk ON) (override)
- MSCI EAFE (The Most Famous International Index) (Risk ON)
- U.S. 10-Year Government Bonds (Risk ON) / USD (Risk ON)
- NAREIT (U.S. Real Estate Index) (Risk ON)
- SP GSCI (Goldman Sachs Commodity Index) (Risk ON)/ GLD (Risk ON)
In summary, my holdings are (at initial weight when first invested):
20% Emerging Market (DEM)
20% Gold (GLD)
20% Real Estate (VNQ)
20% Bond (LTPZ)
20% USD (UUP)
In the first 2 months, my return is 3.5% as of 3/1/2012. The benchmark data are below:
| 12/30/2011 | 3/1/2012 | |||
| TLT / (Bond) | 121.25 | 116.22 | -4% | |
| SPY / (Equity) | 125.5 | 136.75 | 9% | |
| Percentage | ||||
| BOND | 100.00% | 60.00% | 40.00% | 0.00% |
| EQUITY | 0.00% | 40.00% | 60.00% | 100.00% |
| 100.00% | 100.00% | 100.00% | 100.00% | |
| Return | ||||
| BOND | -4.15% | -2.49% | -1.66% | 0.00% |
| EQUITY | 0.00% | 3.59% | 5.38% | 8.96% |
| -4.15% | 1.10% | 3.72% | 8.96% |
Forward looking:
Everything on buy signal is a bad sign. In a normal market, US Dollar and US Treasury products have negative correlation with US Equities. We are not seeing that. Dow is at a psychological point of 13,000. Keep on trying and keep on being rejected. We will see a resolution soon. As I mentioned couple times, this is not a market that I can comfortably holding longs. I will stay away from US equity until I feel comfortable.
There is some problem with Gold last week. FED said no further QE on 2/29. We saw a huge intraday drop of 90 bucks (over 5%)! After the drop, now GLD is getting closer to the MA, but still with good cushion. I am still bullish on Gold, but I will follow system. If the support at GLD 162 breaks, I will exit and move to DBC which also turned bullish.
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