Friday, January 6, 2012

Job data good, but...

From the headline:

NFP Payrolls At 200K, Expected At 155K; Unemployment Rate Drops To 8.5%, Labor Force Participation At Lowest Since 1984




Zerohedge reports based on MS data:

Enamored with the 200,000 number? Don't be - the reason why the market has basically yawned at this BLS data is that as Morgan Stanley's David Greenlaw reports, 42,000 of the 200,000 is basically a seasonal quirk, which will be given back next month, meaning the true adjusted number is 158,000, essentially right on top of the expectation. From David Greenlaw: "some of the strength in this report should be discounted because of an seasonal quirk in the courier category of payrolls (Fed-ex, UPS, etc).  Jobs in this sector jumped 42,000 in December, repeating a pattern seen in 2009 and 2010 (see attached figure).  We should see a payback in next month's report."

The stock market is hitting high 1 more time and drop quickly. I guess it is due to Europe data. If it cannot recover in short term, the double head pattern will be in effect.

add: I saw Daneric's  post from last night. It is a very good analysis based on Elliott Wave. In all 3 possible counts, he made the same conclusion that the rally is coming to an end.
All in all, I am pretty bearish considering the wave pattern is complete or almost complete. Sentiment is more than ample bullish, in fact its almost scary bullish considering credit lockup(s) occurring in Europe. Technicals seem to be waning and diverging.  And there are a lot of non-confirmations.
I still think when exiting, the smart money may push the market a little bit higher, but I agree with him that 2012 could be ugly.

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