Warning: This is a long series from a huge plan. (The catch, I may not be able to finish the entire thing.)
Economy
Updates (based on readings from q4 2012):
- Real GDP Expanding for 3 straight years, but at sub-par rate
- 3% historical average; usually 4% to 6% after recession; but grew at 2% in recent expansion
- Total nonfarm payroll improving but will not fully recover all the jobs lost till at least 2014
- 8 million job losses during the downturn vs. 5 million job creation during expansion
- Real personal consumption expenditures rising at roughly 2%
- Housing wealth recovery helping consumer spending expansion
- Private nonresidential fixed investment is larger than corporate profits because of borrowing
- Now companies have more profit and well exceeding spending
- Real private residential investment increased 27% in value and 9% in volume in 2012
- Housing recovery helping GDP growth
- Owner-occupied real estate values rising over the past two years
- results in $1.5 trillion housing equity accumulation
- Nonresidential fixed investment - turned negative because of uncertainty
- Mixed bag Real state and local government consumption expenditures and gross investment
- GDP drag coming from downsizing of state and local governments is coming to an end
- Federal government downsizing via sequestration in March
- Average hourly earnings
- No cost-push inflationary pressure from wages
- But low wage growth can mean persistent low retail sales growth
- Core inflation rate: All items less food and energy
- Contained for now at Fed‘s preferred rate of 2%
- But rising apartment rents will push up inflation rate in 2014 and beyond
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