Monday, March 11, 2013

Economy Outlook for 2013

I am a little bit absent, I know I know. Well I guess I need to put on my economist hat and do some analysis.
Warning: This is a long series from a huge plan. (The catch, I may not be able to finish the entire thing.)


Economy Updates (based on readings from q4 2012):

  1. Real GDP Expanding for 3 straight years, but at sub-par rate
    1. 3% historical average; usually 4% to 6% after recession; but grew at 2% in recent expansion

  1. Total nonfarm payroll improving but will not fully recover all the jobs lost till at least 2014
    1. 8 million job losses during the downturn vs. 5 million job creation during expansion

  1. Real personal consumption expenditures rising at roughly 2%
    1. Housing wealth recovery helping consumer spending expansion

  1. Private nonresidential fixed investment is larger than corporate profits because of borrowing
    1. Now companies have more profit and well exceeding spending

  1. Real private residential investment increased 27% in value and 9% in volume in 2012
    1. Housing recovery helping GDP growth

  1. Owner-occupied real estate values rising over the past two years
    1. results in $1.5 trillion housing equity accumulation 

  1. Nonresidential fixed investment - turned negative because of uncertainty

  1. Mixed bag Real state and local government consumption expenditures and gross investment
    1. GDP drag coming from downsizing of state and local governments is coming to an end
    2. Federal government downsizing via sequestration in March

  1. Average hourly earnings
    1. No cost-push inflationary pressure from wages
    2. But low wage growth can mean persistent low retail sales growth

  1. Core inflation rate: All items less food and energy
    1. Contained for now at Fed‘s preferred rate of 2%
    2.  But rising apartment rents will push up inflation rate in 2014 and beyond

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