Did I say I m going to make a new post? Me getting lazy
recently. As I mentioned in my intraday charts, I see somebody defending the
1416 low.
If you study the volume profile on the right and the better volume on the bottom, you will see lots of buying climax up.
So far I read the tape as retest then regain support at ES 1416.
On SPX it is slightly different, because last 1416 was after regular trading
hour. On that day, SPX low was at 1425 then closed at 1428. Today we touched
1420 then rebound to 1433. I don’t know how to interpret the difference. I tend
to ignore SPX which is the cash index, but follow ES which is the SPX futures
traded clock around.
It is an Adam-Adam double bottom pattern. I expect a rally in the next couple days. My plan is to trade to the trend line. I add longs when I cut the chart above.
How high can SPX go? According
to Bulkowski’s book, calculated target is around 1490ish. My own measurement is
1470s. The reason is the last spike is too big, unreasonably big. Can it go higher? Can it take out the 1475 peak? Yes maybe. In this dumb bull market, anything could happen. I still feel we are close to the end of the dumb rally from 2009. End of 2012 will be messy even if it is not the end of the world. :D
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