What should I say? 2010 was a good one. May we have a better 2011.
A chart to share. A big one. I mean huge in size.
In the following chart, I reviewed Volume Pattern at the Year Turn for the past couple years. In particular, I pay attention to the relationship between price and volume from Nov OE to Jan OE. I should say there are a lot in common.
Let's rewind to 2003. At the end of 2003, volume dried out at Christmas time, then pick up a little bit in the last 2 trading days (hereinafter VP1). It had a strong January with rising into OE. Over all it was a good period for trading.
In 2004, things were different. Volume dropped for the entire holiday season (VP2), while price shot straight up. The ES gained over 50 points since Nov OE. Right after we turned to 2005, a sharp drop kicked in. ES lost 55 points to Jan OE.
2005 was a strange year w/o Santa Rally. I don't want to recall that year.
At the end of 2006, the volume pattern was not recognizable. I guess it's TOS, but not the market. Anyway ES gained 60 points from Nov OE to Feb with no significant pull back. Then bear roared 100+ points in late Feb.
Now we in 2007. It was a good year. S&P printed the historic high. But not the year end. Bears kicked in right after Xmas. SPX lost over 200 points from Dec OE to Jan OE. That's the start of the very 'short-lived' recession. (Yes that's what we were told.)
In miserable 2008, we eventually got Santa rally which started right after Nov OE. After the turn of the year, we got an even worse 2009. What happened in 2009 stayed in 2009. No comments.
2010 was no good either. Santa brought us 50 points with VP1 to Jan OE, then the market took 100 points back.
Now we at Jan 7, 2011. Market recorded another VP2. What's next?
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