Friday, April 9, 2010

I don't disbelieve it




Gold is stronger than I thought again. I exit too earlier and missed about 20 points. Busy is not a good excuse. It is actually my bad judgment. I thought it could not pass 1130 which was the 3/16 high. Not to mention multiple MA, 50% since 1226 and 61.8% of this round all in 1140 neighborhood. Gold end up took the March high and is challenging 2010 high now.

Anyway the breakout need to be respected. I think 1175 is a good number as Andrew (purple), channel (orange) and fib all meet there. Should I take the trade? Yes I think so. The breakout is powerful, but the internal needs some work. 1155 is Jan high and 1160 is 61.8% (blue). With overbought condition like this, I don't think crazy bulls will push it thru. I expect GC stays in the range of 1135-1155 for a while. Any dip below will be a buy. Time series clearly says 4/16 top. It worked perfectly since last Oct. It should work this time as well. 

Dreamed plan: buy dip around 1135 friday, sell 1175 within 1 week.

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