Rumor says China to raise RMB NEXT WEEK. USD will go down, commodities will go up.
Only problem is the rumor on interest hike. Me thinks it will not happen until late May. We still have time.
To be conservative, I may watch my stop carefully. If GC can close above 1162, I will chase more. Otherwise, it may retest 1120 support. Anyway this will be a 40 points wave. I am so excited.
Thursday, April 15, 2010
Friday, April 9, 2010
I don't disbelieve it
Gold is stronger than I thought again. I exit too earlier and missed about 20 points. Busy is not a good excuse. It is actually my bad judgment. I thought it could not pass 1130 which was the 3/16 high. Not to mention multiple MA, 50% since 1226 and 61.8% of this round all in 1140 neighborhood. Gold end up took the March high and is challenging 2010 high now.
Anyway the breakout need to be respected. I think 1175 is a good number as Andrew (purple), channel (orange) and fib all meet there. Should I take the trade? Yes I think so. The breakout is powerful, but the internal needs some work. 1155 is Jan high and 1160 is 61.8% (blue). With overbought condition like this, I don't think crazy bulls will push it thru. I expect GC stays in the range of 1135-1155 for a while. Any dip below will be a buy. Time series clearly says 4/16 top. It worked perfectly since last Oct. It should work this time as well.
Dreamed plan: buy dip around 1135 friday, sell 1175 within 1 week.
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