Usually I don’t give a shit about predictions. As a typical DTer, I never pay attention to people’s long term prediction until today, until my boy Frank showed me a chart.
This is a chart in Chinese and was posted on a popular Chinese website. Frank first saw the chart in early July but he's pretty sure the chart was first posted in late March or early April since one of his co-workers saw the chart at that time and laughed loud at it.
I don’t have any comments on the chart. It is astonishingly accurate. I know tons of economists, traders, money managers and all kinds of pros. So far I believe this guy beats everybody everything. Maybe he is the God himself.
Another shocking thing. Frank showed me a post this id wrote on the same website dated 7/15/09. Among couple thousands of Chinese characters I found the 2nd to the last sentence (thank god) contains something I can recognize: 3, dow, 10000. My boy said the sentence reads "in 3 months Dow will go back to 10K". When Dow come back to 10k? 10/14/09!
I feel so scared.
Well forgot to mention, he made 2 conclusions in his 7/15 post. Conclusion 1 is Dow 10K in 3 months. Conclusion 2 is within at least 2 years, don’t sell at any pull back, buy dip instead.
Translation of the chart by humblestudent88
ReplyDelete"The Most Optimistic Situation: Complete Recovery in Two Years"
Going back to 20 times P/E is normal
Left Side From High to Low:
1. The market had known subprime mortgage
2. Big drop caused by the worry of bank toxic assets
3. Next drop caused by the bad 1st quarter earning results and the fact that no detail was provided from TARP plan
Right Side From Low to High:
1. Stocks were too cheap, confidence recovered, Dow jumped back to 9000
2. High unemployment rate, bad earnings, profit taking caused market fluctuation
3. The fear is gone, go back to 11000
4. Stimulation plan starts, inflation starts
5. FED raise rate
http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/2009/11/weekend-at-ddts.html#comment-23845903