Into the Quarter end

As I discussed all the time, economy is always yelling to equity market, "It is way to fast". I am expecting QE3 or in lieu, that is something to bubble it up. Without it, we are going to do some gravity check, like the one we are in. Previously I always go long ahead of FED decision, and exit if FED failed to deliver. This is a conservative play, but I missed some profits. Not this time. I try to learn from previous experience. Maybe I should, but let's see how it works this time. In my early June post, I put down my summer plan as a box trading, from 1290-1370 with a mid line of 1330. I will still play my plan with micro management. If it is too close to the top I will underweight, vise versa. Here is an interesting chart from my friend Kena.

What does this chart say? It is trying to chart the relationship between market liquidity with equity index (NYA in this case). There could be chance big boys start to buy at this point. This is the quarter end. This is a Q that equities sharply underperform bonds. I am expecting equities to rally in the last week. Kena also posted another interesting chart.

I am agree with it says. I don't like Obama but I think he will get reelected.

video from BTV - Investors Prepare For Possible U.S. Bank Downgrades

scary video, but very interesting and informative.

Charting the market

I have a tiny little bit problem in understanding the market. I cannot decide whether it will be another down leg. I add half of my equity position yesterday and plan to add another half when SPX reach 1290 again. Check the chart above for my plan.

Here is my hourly cloud chart. It is a confusing moment as quick cloud dip into slow cloud. I think 1300 area or the bottom of slow cloud should hold or it will be hard to do wave count.

Below are the 2 other charts I post frequently. Just pick whatever you like :D.

I think it is bottomed

Overnight movement is convincing. I read the market as bottomed at 1270 area. /ES successfully took 1280 to confirm the bottom is in. I am expecting a recovery summer.
I will look for an entry point either today or tomorrow.

To add later.

Hold off

Market is moving too fast and I am too busy recently. I didn't get chance to update my view when the market is at my first target of 1330.
SPX is approaching my original target around 1290 neighborhood. I expect more battle at 1300. I refine my plan to chase the market if 1300 is confirmed to be a short term bottom, but not to hold the falling knife.
When I say confirmed, I am thinking of a rebound to 1320-1325 area then back down to sub 1300 to make either a double bottom or a higher low.

Sell in May and walk away

The "Sell in May" strategy worked with a high success rate. I guess it works this year as well. Equity futures drop HUGE tonight, and now below the "Benanke-hint".
As expected.
The market need to "persuade" him to print more money. What really bothers me is still the correlation among products. Here are the latest reading of the over night futures market.
SPX 1342, check;
USD 80.1, check;
EURO 1.298 smile;
oil 95, wow;
gold 1638, what???

Enough said. No change in strategy. No change in plan. Good luck to all.

Love the Earth, our mothership

Our planet, our home is being neglected. This Earth Day it's time to mobilize the planet from the ground up to send a message that the Earth won't wait!

Here are some pictures shot by Andre Kuipers, space station astronaut, from ISS. Check how beautiful it is. Hope it will be as beautiful many many years later.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/picture-galleries/9202815/Andre-Kuipers-space-station-astronaut-sends-pictures-to-Earth-via-Twitter.html?frame=2192333